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Native Hawaiian & Other Pacific Islander Population Expected to Nearly Double, from 706,000 to 1.4 Million by the Year 2060

The U.S. population will be considerably older and more racially and ethnically diverse by 2060, according to projections released today by the U.S. Census Bureau. These projections of the nation’s population by age, sex, race and Hispanic origin, which cover the 2012-2060 period, are the first set of population projections based on the 2010 Census.

“The next half century marks key points in continuing trends — the U.S. will become a plurality nation, where the non-Hispanic white population remains the largest single group, but no group is in the majority,” said Acting Director Thomas L. Mesenbourg.

Furthermore, the population is projected to grow much more slowly over the next several decades, compared with the last set of projections released in 2008 and 2009. That is because the projected levels of births and net international migration are lower in the projections released today, reflecting more recent trends in fertility and international migration.

According to the projections, the population age 65 and older is expected to more than double between 2012 and 2060, from 43.1 million to 92.0 million. The older population would represent just over one in five U.S. residents by the end of the period, up from one in seven today. The increase in the number of the “oldest old” would be even more dramatic — those 85 and older are projected to more than triple from 5.9 million to 18.2 million, reaching 4.3 percent of the total population.

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Baby boomers, defined as persons born between 1946 and 1964, number 76.4 million in 2012 and account for about one-quarter of the population. In 2060, when the youngest of them would be 96 years old, they are projected to number around 2.4 million and represent 0.6 percent of the total population.

A More Diverse Nation

The non-Hispanic white population is projected to peak in 2024, at 199.6 million, up from 197.8 million in 2012. Unlike other race or ethnic groups, however, its population is projected to slowly decrease, falling by nearly 20.6 million from 2024 to 2060.

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Click to Enlarge

Meanwhile, the Hispanic population would more than double, from 53.3 million in 2012 to 128.8 million in 2060. Consequently, by the end of the period, nearly one in three U.S. residents would be Hispanic, up from about one in six today.

The black population is expected to increase from 41.2 million to 61.8 million over the same period. Its share of the total population would rise slightly, from 13.1 percent in 2012 to 14.7 percent in 2060.

The Asian population is projected to more than double, from 15.9 million in 2012 to 34.4 million in 2060, with its share of nation’s total population climbing from 5.1 percent to 8.2 percent in the same period.

Among the remaining race groups, American Indians and Alaska Natives would increase by more than half from now to 2060, from 3.9 million to 6.3 million, with their share of the total population edging up from 1.2 percent to 1.5 percent. The Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander population is expected to nearly double, from 706,000 to 1.4 million. The number of people who identify themselves as being of two or more races is projected to more than triple, from 7.5 million to 26.7 million over the same period.

The U.S. is projected to become a majority-minority nation for the first time in 2043. While the non-Hispanic white population will remain the largest single group, no group will make up a majority.

All in all, minorities, now 37 percent of the U.S. population, are projected to comprise 57 percent of the population in 2060. (Minorities consist of all but the single-race, non-Hispanic white population.) The total minority population would more than double, from 116.2 million to 241.3 million over the period.

Projections show the older population would continue to be predominately non-Hispanic white, while younger ages are increasingly minority. Of those age 65 and older in 2060, 56.0 percent are expected to be non-Hispanic white, 21.2 percent Hispanic and 12.5 percent non-Hispanic black. In contrast, while 52.7 percent of those younger than 18 were non-Hispanic white in 2012, that number would drop to 32.9 percent by 2060. Hispanics are projected to make up 38.0 percent of this group in 2060, up from 23.9 percent in 2012.

Other highlights:

  • The nation’s total population would cross the 400 million mark in 2051, reaching 420.3 million in 2060.
  • The proportion of the population younger than 18 is expected to change little over the 2012-2060 period, decreasing from 23.5 percent to 21.2 percent.
  • In 2056, for the first time, the older population, age 65 and over, is projected to outnumber the young, age under 18.
  • The working-age population (18 to 64) is expected to increase by 42 million between 2012 and 2060, from 197 million to 239 million, while its share of the total population declines from 62.7 percent to 56.9 percent.
  • The ratio of males to females is expected to remain stable at around 104.7 males per 100 females for the population under the age of 18. For the population age 18 to 64, the ratio of males per 100 females is projected to be 98.9 in 2012 and increase to 104.1 in 2060. The ratio for the population age 65 and over is also projected to increase, from 77.3 males per 100 females in 2012 to 84.4 in 2060.

Supplemental population projections, based on constant, low and high projections of net international migration, are planned for release in 2013.

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Census Bureau Releases More Data – Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander Population Grew by 2.9 Percent

The U.S. Census Bureau today released a set of estimates showing that 50.4 percent of our nation’s population younger than age 1 were minorities as of July 1, 2011. This is up from 49.5 percent from the 2010 Census taken April 1, 2010. A minority is anyone who is not single-race white and not Hispanic.

The population younger than age 5 was 49.7 percent minority in 2011, up from 49.0 percent in 2010. A population greater than 50 percent minority is considered “majority-minority.”

These are the first set of population estimates by race, Hispanic origin, age and sex since the 2010 Census. They examine population change for these groups nationally, as well as within all states and counties, between Census Day (April 1, 2010) and July 1, 2011. Also released were population estimates for Puerto Rico and its municipios by age and sex.

There were 114 million minorities in 2011, or 36.6 percent of the U.S. population. In 2010, it stood at 36.1 percent.

There were five majority-minority states or equivalents in 2011: Hawaii (77.1 percent minority), the District of Columbia (64.7 percent), California (60.3 percent), New Mexico (59.8 percent) and Texas (55.2 percent). No other state had a minority population greater than 46.4 percent of the total.

More than 11 percent (348) of the nation’s 3,143 counties were majority-minority as of July 1, 2011, with nine of these counties achieving this status since April 1, 2010. Maverick, Texas, had the largest share (96.8 percent) of its population in minority groups, followed by Webb, Texas (96.4 percent) and Wade Hampton Census Area, Alaska (96.2 percent).

Native Hawaiians and Other Pacific Islanders (NHPI)

  • The nation’s Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander population was 1.4 million in 2011 and grew by 2.9 percent since 2010.
  • Hawaii had the largest population of Native Hawaiians and Other Pacific Islanders of any state (359,000) in 2011. California had the largest numeric increase since 2010 (9,000). Hawaii had the highest percentage of NHPI (26.1 percent).
  • Honolulu had the largest population of NHPI of any county (235,000) in 2011. Los Angeles County had the largest numeric increase since 2010 (2,700). Hawaii County had the highest percentage of NHPI (34.0 percent).

Full article here: Most children under the age of 1 are minorities, Census reports

UH Hilo Receives Award to Promote Asian American & Pacific Islander Education

The U.S. Department of Education has selected the University of Hawaiʻi at Hilo as one of 11 colleges and universities to receive part of a grant through the Asian American and Native American Pacific Islander-Serving Institutions (AANAPISI) Program for fiscal year 2011-2012.

UH Hilo’s award is $399,977 for the first year and is part of a five-year grant which runs through 2016 totaling $1,994,025. The University will use the funds to develop and implement a comprehensive, culturally informed student support program to strengthen learning, engagement and success.

The key components includes a summer bridge program, academic support services such as advising, tutoring, peer mentoring and financial aid counseling, activities that have been shown to have a high impact on student engagement such as on-campus employment, first-year experience courses, and service-learning and research projects, and faculty development workshops. The project will also conduct and disseminate research into best practices that facilitates the success of Pacific Islanders in higher education.

“Most of the research on Asians and Pacific Islanders aggregates these diverse populations into one monolithic group,” said Jim Mellon, director of international student services and intercultural education at UH Hilo and the project’s principal investigator. “One of the aims of this project is to disaggregate data on these diverse groups, dispel myths about Asian and Pacific Islanders in American higher education, and find out what unique factors contribute to and facilitate their success.”

Mellon added that the project will enable UH Hilo to develop and assess innovative approaches that are informed by cultural values such as the importance of group achievement and to be at the forefront nationally in this area.

Established in 2007, the AANAPISI program seeks to increase the capacity of higher education institutions to better serve disadvantaged college students. With about one of every three students being Asian American or Pacific Islander, UH Hilo was one of the first institutions nationwide to receive an AANAPISI grant when it initiated a similar project in 2008.

“UH Hilo has a proven record as an institution of choice for Pacific Islander students,” noted Vice Chancellor for Student Affairs Luoluo Hong. “We want to do all we can to support their success and improve their learning outcomes. Building the new Pacific Islander Student Center was the first step; now we need to ensure we provide needed programs and services.”

Additional information on the AANAPISI Program is available online at http://www2.ed.gov/programs/aanapi/index.html.

Native Hawaiians Have Higher Risks of Death than White Americans

Media Release:

Throughout their lives, Native Hawaiians have higher risks of death than white Americans, according to a University of Michigan study.

The research is the first known study to assess mortality patterns among Native Hawaiians at the national level, including those living outside the state of Hawaii.

The study is published in the November 2010 issue of the American Journal of Public Health, online Sept. 16. It was funded by the National Center for Minority Health and Health Disparities, part of the National Institutes of Health.

“Native Hawaiians are far more likely than whites to suffer early death,” said demographer Sela Panapasa, an assistant research scientist at the U-M Institute for Social Research (ISR) and lead author of the article. “Like Black Americans, they are also much more likely than whites to die in mid- and later-life.”

Based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the National Center for Health Statistics, the study shows that Native Hawaiian infants less than one year old and young people between the ages of 15 and 34 are particularly vulnerable to early death compared with corresponding age groups of white Americans.

“We also found that older Native Hawaiians have higher expected death rates than either Blacks or whites age 65 and over, suggesting that relatively fewer of this group have benefited from the increased longevity enjoyed by the rest of the nation,” said Panapasa, who is a Pacific Islander of Polynesian heritage.

“These results support the idea that renewed efforts are needed to better understand the specific causes and risk factors of increased mortality among Native Hawaiians and other high risk minority populations, including Pacific Islanders, Southeast Asians, Native Americans, and Alaskan Natives,” Panapasa said. “They should also prompt further investigation into the precursors of premature mortality among Native Hawaiians, including access to health care and prenatal care, socioeconomic status, and the impact of colonization, oppression and other social determinants on health outcomes.”

Panapasa’s co-authors are Marjorie Mau of the University of Hawaii, David Williams of Harvard University, and James McNally of U-M’s ISR.

Pacific Islanders in the United States are a distinct and rapidly growing population, Panapasa noted. Based on the 2000 U.S. Census, there were 874,000 Native Hawaiians and Pacific Islanders in the U.S. Native Hawaiians represent the largest sector (46 percent) of this population.

Until 1996, Native Hawaiians and Pacific Islanders were aggregated with the larger U.S. Asian population. “Because of their relatively small numbers, their social, economic, and health status has been chronically under-represented in national surveys and distinctive patterns have been missed,” Panapasa said.

“As the U.S. becomes increasingly diverse both racially and ethnically, this type of analysis allows for new insights into the underpinnings of differences in morbidity and mortality,” Panapasa said. “It offers an opportunity to identify how best to reduce health concerns and disparities in racially diverse populations.”