Aloha Darby!

Darby continues to maintain deep convection near its center, and in fact the convective cloud tops have cooled a bit over the past several hours.

The current intensity estimate, 55 kt, is unchanged from the past advisory and is consistent with the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB.

The storm should encounter modestly increasing vertical shear and drier air over the next several days, but will be moving over slightly warmer waters.  These factors should result in only a slow rate of weakening over the forecast period, and this is reflected in the official intensity forecast, which is near the model consensus and above the latest SHIPS and LGEM guidance.

It is worth noting however, that longer-range intensity prediction has little skill.

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