Tropical Storm Madeline to Reach Hurricane Intensity in 36 Hours


Madeline is expected to continue moving generally northwestward for the next 72 hours around the southwesterly periphery of a mid-level ridge centered near 125W.

After that time, a ridge centered north of the Hawaiian Islands becomes the dominant steering mechanism, and should impart a westward motion through the remainder of the forecast period.  While the overall track forecast philosophy has not changed, the more northerly initial position has resulted in a northward shift of the guidance envelope and the NHC forecast by 30 to 50 n mi through the forecast period.  The new NHC track is near the middle of the guidance envelope and close to the latest multi-model consensus.

The SHIPS model shows the shear decreasing over Madeline during the next 12 hours or so, which should allow for some intensification through 72 hours while the cyclone is moving over SSTs above 27C.

The NHC forecast continues to show Madeline reaching hurricane intensity in about 36 hours.  At days 4 and 5, the SSTs along the track drop below 27C and the westerly shear increases, which should result in some weakening.  The new NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one after 48 hours due to the more northerly track and is near or a little above the latest intensity consensus.

It is too early to determine what impacts Madeline could have on the Hawaiian Islands late in the forecast period.  It is important to remind users that the average day 4 and 5 track forecast errors for eastern Pacific tropical cyclones are around 145 and 170 miles, respectively.

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