NOTE: I personally can’t see anything going on at this time on the Big Island:
Deep convection associated with Darby has increased once again this morning, with the bulk of this activity now across the system’s southeast semicircle. Outflow remains best within the northeast quadrant, but is restricted throughout the south semicircle, thanks to continued 7 to 10 kt southwest shear.
Low cloud swirls east of the LLCC add confidence to the initial position based heavily on satellite fixes. However, Darby continues to defy predictions to gain latitude.
Given the continued messy satellite presentation and the lack of aircraft data for this package, it’s possible that this system is a tenth of a degree or two farther south.
The next forecast package may benefit from land-based weather radar position estimates. Initial intensity is decreased to 45 kt as a compromise between continued 35 kt objective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates and earlier SFMR intensity from reconnaissance aircraft. The next aircraft reconnaissance mission will be later this morning.