The 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron has been flying through Darby all morning, providing valuable data as to Darby’s strength and size. Maximum flight level winds near 50 kt indicate that Darby has weakened slightly since their visit last night, and the initial intensity for this advisory has been reduced to 40 kt.
The initial motion is estimated to be 280/09 kt, with the poorly-defined center of Darby located on the north side of the deep convection. Track guidance is fairly well clustered this time around, and continues to indicate that the center of Darby will move over the Big Island later today as it moves toward the west.
Darby is expected to move into a weakness in the mid-level ridge to its north over the next day or so, due to a deep-layer low centered well to the north of the Hawaiian Islands. This will result in a gradual turn toward the northwest, as well as a gradual increase in forward speed. The official track forecast is close to the previous and a tightly clustered guidance suite, and offers no significant changes.
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
- LOCATION…18.9N 154.8W
- ABOUT 60 MI…95 KM SSE OF HILO HAWAII
- ABOUT 260 MI…420 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
- MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
- PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
- MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB…29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
- Hawaii County
- Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Molokai, Lanai and Kahoolawe
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
- Kauai County, including the islands of Kauai and Niihau