Facebook Using Safety Check Feature for Tropical Storm Darby

Well I have heard of the Facebook “Safety Check” feature that happens on Facebook when natural disasters happen or major things like terrorist attacks.

Never in my mind did I think I would ever have it pop up on my Facebook timeline, but tonight it did!
Facebook Safety CheckI marked myself “safe” of course.  I could have marked some of my friends that I know are safe as well… but I figure I’ll let them do that so they get the opportunity to use the new feature themselves.

Darby Almost Done on the Big Island – Steady Weakening Anticipated

Tropical Storm Darby is beginning to move past the Big Island of Hawaii.

Click to enlarge

Click to enlarge

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Kauai County, including the islands of Kauai and Niihau.

Darby 723 5pm track

The 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron flew through Darby for a good portion of the day, and departed the storm just before the poorly-defined center came ashore over the southeastern portion of the Big Island near Pahala around 2 pm.  The center is estimated to be traversing the southern slopes of the Big Island at this time.

Surface pressures were rising each time the plane sampled the system, and flight-level winds indicated that Darby’s intensity had weakened to near 35 kt, and that is the initial intensity for this advisory.  Another reconnaissance flight is scheduled for early Sunday morning to determine what remains of Darby’s circulation after it emerges from the Big Island.

The initial motion is estimated to be 275/09 kt, with the poorly-defined center of Darby currently estimated to be over interior portions of the Big Island.  After emerging from the Big Island later this evening, a turn toward the northwest is expected, with Darby moving toward the northwest through the remainder of the forecast period.

Darby is still expected to move into a weakness in the mid-level ridge to its north over the next 24 hours, as a deep-layer low remains nearly stationary far north of the Hawaiian Islands.

While the spread in the track guidance has increased slightly from the previous cycle, it continues to indicate a steady northwest motion.  The updated track forecast is close to the previous and the multi-model consensus TVCN.

As the center of Darby is currently over the Big Island, there is considerable uncertainty as to what will remain of the low-level circulation once it moves back over water later this evening.  The intensity forecast is conservatively maintaining Darby as a minimal tropical storm through 24 hours until it is clear that re-development will not occur.

Thereafter, steady weakening is anticipated, as increasing shear and gradually cooling waters lie along the forecast track.  The updated forecast indicates weakening to a remnant low in 72 hours, with dissipation expected by the end of the forecast period.  This is a slower rate of weakening than depicted by global models through the first 24 hours, and the intensity consensus, IVCN, but closely follows IVCN thereafter.

If Darby’s circulation does not survive its interaction with the Big Island’s rugged terrain, than dissipation will likely occur much sooner.

New Thermal Image Map Shows Where Lava is Active

This image shows a thermal map of the flow on the pali and coastal plain, created from airborne thermal images. White pixels are hot, and show areas of active surface breakouts. The background image is a satellite image collected before the current lava flow was active.

Click to enlarge

Click to enlarge

The thermal map shows minimal activity on the upper pali, with a channelized ʻaʻā flow at the base of the pali. The flow front area had scattered pāhoehoe breakouts, with a narrow lobe of active lava forming the leading tip of the flow. The leading tip of the flow was 730 m (0.45 miles) from the ocean.

Sluggish Lava Breakouts Advance Slowly on Coastal Plain

The flow front remains active and consists of slowly advancing pāhoehoe. There are scattered breakouts along the margins of the flow on the coastal plain and base of the pali.

hvo 723a

During the overflight yesterday, the flow front was 730 m (0.45 miles) from the ocean.

A faint double rainbow provided a beautiful backdrop for sluggish pāhoehoe lava oozing out from near the flow front this morning.  Pictures were taken as part of a site visit to the G61 flow front on July 22, 2016.   The flow was about 615m from the road and 760 m from the ocean. (Click to enlarge)

A faint double rainbow provided a beautiful backdrop for sluggish pāhoehoe lava oozing out from near the flow front this morning. Pictures were taken as part of a site visit to the G61 flow front on July 22, 2016.
The flow was about 615m from the road and 760 m from the ocean. (Click to enlarge)

During early morning field observations, a large breakout of lava near the base of Pūlama Pali (steep fault scarp in background) was visible through fumes from the lava tube and heat shimmer from lava on the coastal plain.

The approximate location of the lava tube feeding Kīlauea's active lava flow is visible as degassing sources (white fume) on the pali. (Click to enlarge)

The approximate location of the lava tube feeding Kīlauea’s active lava flow is visible as degassing sources (white fume) on the pali. (Click to enlarge)

A breakout at the base of the pali viewed by a field crew this morning has formed a channelized ʻaʻā flow on the steeper portion of the coastal plain.

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A close up view of the ʻaʻā channel.

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Civil Defense Update on Tropical Storm Darby

This is a Civil Defense message.

This is a Tropical Storm Darby update as of Saturday July 23rd 11 AM.

Darby Sat 723 1244

The flash flood warning for the Big Island has been downgraded to a flood advisory.  A flood advisory means minor, general or area flooding is occurring, imminent or highly likely in flood prone areas. The High Surf Warning for east facing shores and a Tropical Storm Warning for the entire island remains in effect for Hawaii County.

As of 11 AM today, Tropical Storm Darby is located about 60 miles south-southeast of Hilo moving to the west at 10 miles per hour. Maximum sustained winds are 45 miles per hour with higher gusts.

Rain and wind from Tropical Storm Darby are affecting the Big Island. Residents are urged to stay off the road if at all possible.

Should power be lost or access be blocked-ensure you have prescription medications, ice, water, oxygen, backup power and fuel if needed.

To keep everyone safe, all State and County park facilities and remote areas of Hawaii Volcanoes National Park are closed until further notice.

Hele-On Bus service is suspended today. Solid waste transfer stations and landfills are closed today.

Umauma Bridge on Highway 19 remains closed with a detour through Old Mamalahoa Highway.

For a list of County Emergency Shelters and the details of this message, go to hawaiicounty.gov

Monitor your local radio broadcasts for information updates.

~ Hawaii County Civil Defense

11:00 Update on Tropical Storm Darby – Heading Towards South Point

The 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron has been flying through Darby all morning, providing valuable data as to Darby’s strength and size. Maximum flight level winds near 50 kt indicate that Darby has weakened slightly since their visit last night, and the initial intensity for this advisory has been reduced to 40 kt.

Click to enlarge

Click to enlarge

The initial motion is estimated to be 280/09 kt, with the poorly-defined center of Darby located on the north side of the deep convection. Track guidance is fairly well clustered this time around, and continues to indicate that the center of Darby will move over the Big Island later today as it moves toward the west.

Darby is expected to move into a weakness in the mid-level ridge to its north over the next day or so, due to a deep-layer low centered well to the north of the Hawaiian Islands. This will result in a gradual turn toward the northwest, as well as a gradual increase in forward speed. The official track forecast is close to the previous and a tightly clustered guidance suite, and offers no significant changes.

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION

  • LOCATION…18.9N 154.8W
  • ABOUT 60 MI…95 KM SSE OF HILO HAWAII
  • ABOUT 260 MI…420 KM SE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
  • MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
  • PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH…17 KM/H
  • MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB…29.59 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…

  • Hawaii County
  • Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Molokai, Lanai and Kahoolawe
  • Oahu

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…

  • Kauai County, including the islands of Kauai and Niihau

Civil Defense Update on Tropical Storm Darby

This is a Tropical Storm Darby update for Saturday July 23nd at 5:30 AM.
Darby Sat 723
The National Weather Service issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Hawaii County. A High Surf Warning for east facing shores is also in effect. A Flash Flood Advisory is in effect for Hawaii County.

As of 5 AM today, Tropical Storm Darby is located about 100 miles southeast of Hilo moving to the west at 9 miles per hour. Maximum sustained winds are 50 miles per hour with higher gusts.

Rain and wind from Tropical Storm Darby are affecting the Big Island. Residents are urged to stay off the road if at all possible.

Should power be lost or access be blocked-ensure you have prescription medications, ice, water, oxygen, backup power and fuel if needed.

To keep everyone safe, all State and County park facilities and remote areas of Hawaii Volcanoes National Park are closed until further notice.

Hele-On Bus service is suspended today. Solid waste transfer stations and landfills are closed today.

Umauma Bridge on Highway 19 closed with a detour through Old Mamalahoa Highway.

For a list of County Emergency Shelters and the details of this message, go to hawaiicounty.gov.

Monitor your local radio broadcasts for information updates.

Thank you for listening, this is your Hawaii County Civil Defense.

National Weather Service Reports Darby is Here – Not Where I live!

NOTE: I personally can’t see anything going on at this time on the Big Island:

Deep convection associated with Darby has increased once again this morning, with the bulk of this activity now across the system’s southeast semicircle. Outflow remains best within the northeast quadrant, but is restricted throughout the south semicircle, thanks to continued 7 to 10 kt southwest shear.

darby 723 5am

Low cloud swirls east of the LLCC add confidence to the initial position based heavily on satellite fixes. However, Darby continues to defy predictions to gain latitude.

Given the continued messy satellite presentation and the lack of aircraft data for this package, it’s possible that this system is a tenth of a degree or two farther south.

The next forecast package may benefit from land-based weather radar position estimates. Initial intensity is decreased to 45 kt as a compromise between continued 35 kt objective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates and earlier SFMR intensity from reconnaissance aircraft. The next aircraft reconnaissance mission will be later this morning.

Full report here: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/archive/?prod=TCDCP3.EP052016.048.201607231459