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Tropical Storm Darby Update – Direct Impact Possible on Big Island and Maui

The first Air Force Reserve 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron mission into Darby found maximum SFMR winds of just over 50 knots but the initial passes had difficulty determining the location of the low level center. Based on the recon data thus far, the tropical storm force radius was expanded slightly in the northern semicircle and Darby has been held at 50 kt for this advisory package.

Click to enlarge

Click to enlarge

Darby is estimated to be moving at 270/10 kt to the south of a ridge. This ridge is forecast to weaken due to a low pressure system digging southward to the north of Darby. This is expected to decrease the forward motion over the next day, and increase the amount of vertical shear on the tropical cyclone this weekend. The trusted objective aids are consistent with this scenario but have shifted southward slightly with some solutions indicating landfall over the Big Island. As a result, the current forecast has been shifted southward a bit and is between the dynamical consensus and the previous forecast. Given current guidance trends, a direct impact on the Big Island and Maui is a distinct possibility this weekend.

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