Darby’s satellite presentation continues to be messy, with deep convection now on the decline and beginning to wrap around the south and southwest quadrants. Cloud tops have warmed over the past six hours and the best outflow continues to be toward the northeast, consistent with southwesterly shear near 10 kt depicted by SHIPS.
The 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron’s WC-130J aircraft did a fine job this evening finding the center of this system, so we are confident we know where Darby is and how it is moving. Based on aircraft SFMR data from the first pass through the center, we will keep an initial intensity of 50 kt for this advisory.
Like before, this is higher than the objective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from the three satellite analysis centers (HFO, JTWC and SAB). These range from 30 kt to 45 kt. Interestingly, an 0630 UTC ASCAT pass only found 35 kt within the northeast quadrant. The next aircraft reconnaissance mission into Darby will be Saturday morning.